Tracy John Kimambo“
[wanabidii] IF M23 IS
DEFEATED, WHAT WILL PRESIDENT PAUL KAGAME DO? (2)
Oct 31 at 4:06 AM
Herment Mrema
To wanabidii@googlegroups.com
Oct 31 at 9:04 AM
These two "noble" men survive on conflict. That is what makes them exist. Till death take care of them I am afraid they
will create another mutiny, and another as long as they have bags of natural
resources stolen from Congo to bankroll the so called forces against
undemocratic regime of CDR.
The solution to end the war is to get rid of the two big men
and nothing else.
Cheers
Herment A. Mrema
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2013 12:37:41 +0300
Subject: Re: [wanabidii] IF M23 IS DEFEATED, WHAT
WILL PRESIDENT PAUL KAGAME DO?
From: lutinwa@gmail.com
Being belligerent fella, and having been engaged in a number
of provocative moves to his eastern neighbor, I guess his dreams are telling
him to go east. This will certainly mark the end of barbaric rule
On Thu, Oct 31, 2013 at 12:06 PM, Tracy John Kimambo
wrote:
“As Goma fell to Rwanda’s troops President Museveni of Uganda
and President Kagame of Rwanda, both condemnable co-authors of this latest
outrage against the Congolese people, met President Kabila of DRC in Kampala in
a sham diplomacy designed to serve him with a fait accompli and an ultimatum to
accept M23 as a Congolese organization with legitimate demands. Even then,
Kagame must know this: it will be a futile exercise since, like all his
ventures in DRC, he will be forced to abandon it, leaving with bags of coltan,
diamonds and gold, and behind him a trail of blood, tears and sweat of Rwandans
and Congolese. DRC will, sooner than later, prove to be Paul Kagame’s Achilles
heel, as wars that he has perpetuated abroad finally reverberate on the hills
of Rwanda. This worst case scenario is not inevitable, but the time to act to
prevent continuing bloodshed is now.”
Since then more Congolese and Rwandan blood has
been shed and millions of Congolese people displaced.
The last few days have been , like most events in the Great
Lakes region, very dramatic. Kagame’s proxy creation, the M23, has, according
to Martin Kobler, the United Nations Special Envoy to the Democratic Republic
of Congo, “seen its military end.” M23′s fortunes,
essentially Kagame’s, are confined to “a small triangle close to the Rwandan
border.” The last 12 months have been what in Latin is termed, “Annus
Horribilis” or a horrible year for His Excellency Paul Kagame.
It is too early to write an epitaph on Kagame’s dangerous and
costly ventures in DRC. However, it is clear that times have changed, and that
the game-changers are South Africa and Tanzania as SADC’s Force Intervention
Brigade, coupled with renewed commitment of the Congolese Army. It is this new
factor that makes both President Kagame and President Museveni, long used to
have free but disruptive hands in DRC, very uneasy and scrambling for ways to
respond to the new realities.
How will President Kagame respond?
First, Kagame looks at
Rwanda, Congolese and African people as ‘expendables’ in his quest for
maintaining his dictatorial power in Rwanda, and projecting it into DRC. For
now, he might decide to sacrifice the Congolese Tutsi in M23, take them into
Uganda and Rwanda as refugees, and disarm them. Like Generals Nkunda ( under
‘house arrest’ in Rwanda) and Ntaganda ( now in ICC), General Makenga and his
colleagues are indeed an endangered species. Knowing Kagame’s psychology, he
has , most likely, passed a death sentence to these officers to whom he gave a
mission impossible.
Second, he might relocate the remnants of the M23 to south
Kivu. Unfortunately, the Tutsi of south Kivu, namely the Banyamulenge, have
suffered enough from Kagame’s opportunistic actions in DRC and are not likely
to render support to such an adventure.
Third, as has happened in the past, when his enterprise in
DRC has suffered setbacks, President Museveni has come to his rescue through
sham peace talks under what is called International Conference on the Great
Lakes Region (ICGLR). President Kagame and President Museveni use the ICGLR to
buy time, and obstruct the role of the African Union, and to fight the SADC
(South Africa and Tanzania) presence in DRC.
Fourth, President Museveni and President Kagame have been
working hard to lure President Kenyatta into their shrinking sphere of
influence and isolate Tanzania in the East African Community. Weakened and frustrated,
Museveni and Kagame will most likely deepen the tempo of this action.
Fifth, where other people’s lives are involved, Kagame is a
dangerous risk-taker and gambler who can take precipitate actions without
considering the costs. He might, as his Ambassador at the United Nations
threatened last Friday, decide to launch a full invasion into DRC, repeating
the 1996/97/98 cycle. He now knows the consequences of facing South African and
Tanzanian troops, a Kagame-weary international community, a more effective
Congolese Army, a Congolese state that is striving to be united at the top, a
Congolese public that is united against Kagame’s violence, a hostile Congolese
Tutsi community that is now aware that they are being manipulated by Kagame for
his selfish agenda, and a Rwandan nation that is opposed to his war-making at
home and abroad. Yet, like a losing gambler, Kagame will often raise the stakes
in pursuit of his objectives. That is what happened in 1994 when he decided to
shoot down the plane, killing President Habyarimana and triggering the
genocide. That is what happened in 2001 when, under his orders, President
Laurent Kabila of DRC was assassinated.
Within the next two years, as President Kagame’s horizons
shrink regionally, internationally, and further with Rwanda, the prospects for
civil war within Rwanda will correspondingly increase. Kagame has made enough
enemies in Rwanda and the Great Lakes region. In the absence of an African and
international effort to compel Kagame to talk peace to his political and armed
opponents ( including FDLR), these enemies will find just cause and opportunity
to take arms against Kagame’s regime, and the consequences will be
catastrophic.
Now that Africans through SADC have demonstrated that
Africans can make a difference in DRC, this is not the time to sit and relax.
What the 20,000-strong, 1.5 billion U.S. $ a year, United Nations MONUSCO could
not do over 10 years, Tanzania and South Africa have been able to do in a few
months.
SADC should remain deployed in DRC until a peaceful and
lasting solution is found for DRC and Rwanda.
Once gain, to reiterate my earlier thought:
“DRC will, sooner than
later, prove to be Paul Kagame’s Achilles heel, as wars that he has perpetuated
abroad finally reverberate on the hills of Rwanda. This worst case scenario is
not inevitable, but the time to act to prevent continuing bloodshed is now”
How prophetic!
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