Wednesday, January 1, 2014

The Fabricated Coup (South Sudan): A Confession from a Party insider

Good People,

The reason why this Regional corrupt politics sugar-coated with conflict of self-greed interest is bound to backfire and hit dead-end with more serious causalities spilling out of control from South Sudan outward to its neighboring Nations is that, Regional players such as Museveni, Uhuru and Al-Bashir are well known hardcore macho stinking corrupt leaders who care less about human rights or respect and value of democracy for good Governance according to public mandate......and therefore, no Citizen or good people of East Africa of the Great Lakes Regions would dare want to believe or trust, let alone to associate with them. These people belong to the ICC Hague.

The Condition for ceasefire without laid down:

1) "monitoring mechanisms for the ceasefire"

2) Restriction of Museveni loose cannon on South Sudan from his Private Army

3) National Reconciliation MUST be a Unity of purpose that shows "How People Want to be Governed in a People's Government that must be responsible with integrity, and under checks and balances, must be transparent and be accountable.......a component that is inclusive and is shareable without discrimination or intimidation and must be free from corruption, graft and impunity

4) Leaders must realize their people comes first and China is the most corrupt Nationals who use their country to Play Agency on behalf of the International Corporate Special Business Interest Network through hooks and crooks to gain what they want, they gain African Land and resources freely and irregularly through political conspiracies and those who loose in leaps and bounds are Africans.

shall be futile of no good.
As far as we the voices of reason are concerned, nothing shall work well if peoples' constitutional mandate is short-changed to serve those of self greed, those of politically correct special interest. The people must suffer in the consequences and conflicts shall never be resolved.

Therefore, those who bear most responsibilities to spike the confrontation and the fight must face the law moving forward.

From the onset, it is clear Leadership of IGAD were all set in a planned conspiracy to cause havoc of insurgency to the people of South Sudan the reason why conspiracy of a coup only existed in the mind of Salva Kiir……. Unless he can justify otherwise.
Ressolution for Reconciliation is all about how the people want their Government system to them anything you want, but one thing is clear, that a Plan of Action, a Memorundum defining how distribution of wealth is shared and employment with Social Welfare is defined, nothing can fail Africans from succeeding in their Progressive Development Agenda. What is killing Africa, why Africa is in extreme poverty situation is as a result of Public Mandate being Short-changed by the Corrupt politically correct networking with the International Corporate Special Business Network that is denying Africans rights and heavily stealing from Africa's finances, wealth, resources in the conspiracy of Grabbing of Africa's Land.....
Wake Up people of Africa, wake up and stand up for your Rights, dont be fooled.......!!!!
Let People of African descent all over the world rise up and demand for justice in Africa. Let us call a spade a spade and save that which is fair and just. The pain and sufferings on the face of Africa is too much to bear. Things must begin to be done differently......which is why, there must be no rest until justice is achieved.
The Truth Shall Set us All Free Indeed..........

Judy Miriga
Diaspora Spokesperson
Executive Director
Confederation Council Foundation for Africa Inc.,

South Sudan govt and rebel teams 'in Ethiopia for talks'

South Sudan President Salva Kiir (L) shakes hands with his Ugandan counterpart Yoweri Museveni in South Sudan's capital Juba on December 30, 2013
Addis Ababa (AFP) - South Sudan's warring parties were Wednesday set to begin peace talks in Addis Ababa aimed at bringing an end to a nearly three-week-old civil war that has already left thousands dead.
Government and rebel negotiating teams both arrived in the Ethiopian capital by Wednesday evening, a source close to the talks said and diplomats said they expected formal discussions on a possible ceasefire to begin on Thursday, although informal contacts may take place later Wednesday.
Ethiopian government spokesman Getachew Reda said the talks would focus on "monitoring mechanisms for the ceasefire".
"It's positive that they are sending delegations," UN special envoy Hilde Johnson said in Juba, underscoring the dire need for "reconciliation and healing" at the talks, which are being brokered by Ethiopia on behalf of IGAD, an East African regional grouping.
"Negotiations also need to be accompanied by something else, a deeper process that focuses on national reconciliation between the communities. We have seen terrible acts of violence in the past two weeks... and as we know, if there is no one held accountable, there is a major risk that the violence can continue," she added.
Fighting erupted in South Sudan December 15, when President Salva Kiir accused his former deputy Riek Machar of attempting a coup. Machar has denied this, in turn accusing the president of conducting a violent purge of his opponents.
The fighting has spread across the country, with the rebels seizing several areas in the oil-rich north. On Tuesday the rebels recaptured Bor, the capital of Jonglei state and situated just 200 kilometres (125 miles) north of the capital Juba, and fighting was reportedly continuing in the area on Wednesday.
Thousands of people are feared dead, UN officials say, while close to 200,000 civilians have been forced to flee their homes -- many seeking refuge with badly overstretched UN peacekeepers.
The International Committee of the Red Cross said residents continue to pour by the thousand out of Jonglei and across the White Nile into Awerial county in neighbouring Lakes state.
"The road to the river is lined with thousands of people, with others waiting for boats to carry them across," said Francois Moreillon, ICRC deputy head of delegation.
The UN last week estimated that some 70,000 people had already fled into Awerial.
The conflict has also been marked by an upsurge of ethnic violence pitting members of Kiir's Dinka tribe against Machar's Nuer community, and the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) said that "atrocities are continuing to occur" across the country.
"UNMISS is gravely concerned about mounting evidence of gross violations of international human rights law that have occurred in South Sudan during the past 15 days," it said in a statement, reporting "extra-judicial killings of civilians and captured soldiers" and the "discovery of large numbers of bodies" in Juba, Bor and Malakal, the main town in oil-producing Upper Nile state.

UN gathering evidence on atrocities

The UN mission also said it was "actively collecting information" on the atrocities to be used for future official investigations.
On Tuesday, Machar told AFP via satellite phone that he was not yet ready to agree to an immediate ceasefire nor hold face-to-face talks with Kiir, and that his forces were marching on the capital Juba.
"There is no cessation of hostilities yet," Machar said. "That is what the delegation going to Addis Ababa is going to discuss and to negotiate. I will follow later, once the negotiations have resulted in a cessation of hostilities. It depends on if and when that is achieved."
Kiir has described the war as "senseless", but has ruled out power sharing with the rebels. The president has also rejected rebel demands that a number of their loyalists, arrested shortly after the violence started, be released.
"What power sharing? It is not an option. This man has rebelled. If you want power, you don't rebel so that you are awarded with the power," Kiir said in an interview broadcast on the BBC.
On Wednesday the government confirmed it had lost control of Bor, a town which has changed hands three times in the past two weeks, but officials said fighting was continuing on a number of fronts.
South Sudan is the world's youngest nation, having won independence from Sudan in 2011 after decades of civil war.
Industry sources say South Sudan's oil production -- most of which is bought by China -- has dropped by around a fifth because of the fighting.
The United States, which was a key backer of South Sudan's independence struggle, has warned of a "very complicated, tenuous situation".
The AU expressed "Africa's dismay and disappointment that the continent's newest nation should descend so quickly into civil strife", warning of its potential to deteriorate into "full-fledged civil war" -- even though many observers say this has already happened.
A group of Ugandan lawmakers meanwhile accused President Yoweri Museveni of meddling in neighbouring South Sudan.
On December 20, Kampala deployed soldiers to South Sudan to evacuate stranded Ugandan nationals.
The MPs objected to a warning by Museveni for the rebels to stand down or face regional action.
"This issue of President Museveni giving ultimatums to Machar is not good. This is a tribal fight and not a political matter that he should get involved in," Theodore Ssekikuubo told AFP.
South Sudan Conflict: Costs and Benefits Analysis
A South Sudanese man shows off his [gun]. Photo: Steve Evans
By Deng Vanang
December 31, 2013 (SSNA) -- About fifteen days have passed since the conflict erupted between two SPLM rival factions. The conflict came about as the backlash of what was then an ongoing party third National Liberation Council, NLC meeting since May 2008’s 2nd National Convention. NLC is the party’s legislative wing that normally passes scores of drafted documents, namely the basic rules and constitution. In these documents are contentious clauses which the internal opposition claims are skewed in favor of party Chairman who is also President of the Republic, Salva Kiir Mayardit. On the second day of meeting, that is Sunday 15th December 2013, the group opposed to Kiir pulled out of the meeting citing lack of peaceful atmosphere conducive to the democratic method necessary to discuss the document. As alleged the Chairman was literally turned abusive to Machar’s personality. Machar who has turned rebel fighting government forces is the leader of the group some of its leaders are locked behind bars the same Sunday night when the war broke out between Presidential guards. These guards are an amalgamation of both Kiir and Machar loyalists.
The fight began in earnest when Presidential guards’ commander loyal to President named Marial Chinuong decided to redeploy from key installations in the Unit soldiers sympathetic to Machar and to re-assign in their places soldiers fanatically supportive to Kiir. As the war enters its third week these three states of Greater Upper Nile region have become nasty scenes of protracted gun battles with their capitals changing hands back and forth. They are the traditional political base of Machar besides being bread basket of the newly independent country as major reservoir of oil reserves. Foreign diplomats and in particular those from Eastern African Bloc have been in shuttle diplomacy between their respective states’ capitals and Juba in recent fruitful attempt to bring warring factions to the negotiating table. With Machar changing his previous position of only accepting peace talks if all detained political allies are released so that they are part and parcel of his negotiating team. Two of the eleven detainees are released so far but the big fish that include suspended Secretary-General of SPLM Pagan Amum are yet to be let out of the cage. He bowed to external pressure as a strategy to fend off the impending military assault of the East African bloc should he fail to respond to the outlined deadline.
But one more hurdle remains in force, being Machar’s refusal to the proposed cease fire as requested by Eastern African member states to pave way for the mediated peace talks between him and Kiir. To him, cease fires are negotiated beforehand so that there are laid down mechanisms for proper monitoring with their subsequent effective implementation otherwise we would be deceiving ourselves, Machar concluded in an interview with the BBC while Kiir is adamantly opposed to any preconditions prior to the talks. That is already the stalemate which the IGGAD member states want to break in threatening Machar with military intervention in support of Kiir. And as they are talking with each other on how to make good their threats in imposing cessation of hostilities as four day deadline to bring parties to the negotiating table has passed, Machar forces have recaptured the strategic town of Bor, capital of Jonglei State as an act of defiant.
Machar’s strengths
As Machar forces set on their 200 miles long march from Bor to Juba, it is prudent to analyze costs and benefits of each rival side in a two - week old war that looks likely to attract a regional conflict reminiscent of Congolese war of late 1990s. For one, oil fields control wields a considerable influence over who between the two protagonists will win the war. Since their production accounts for 98% of total South Sudan annual revenue. If Machar controls majority of them as he claims, he will not only deny government of resources and allies to persecute the war but uses them to get cash or credit from international financial lenders to oust Kiir’s government. Machar has already directed the diversion of oil cash to private accounts under his own gridlock and key. When he is fully in charge of Greater Upper Nile region, Machar will have the control of the fiercest fighting force who are the Nuers and other Nilotic groups in the country. Based on the atrocities allegedly committed by Kiir government against ethnic Nuer in Juba, human rights groups in their hostile crusade shall deprive Kiir and his government of global moral support that in turn will translate into arms embargo if not outright military intervention. It is this human rights issue with regards to Bor incident of 1991 which caused Machar led Nasir faction not to access arms and as a result lost out to Dr. John Garang’s SPLM/A Mainstream eventually. On political front most media reports and analysts have rubbished the alleged coup as Kiir’s fabrication meant to stifle internal democratic process in the party SPLM and to a larger extent the whole country. That news sounds pretty good for Machar while it paints Kiir as ruthless war monger.
Kiir’s secret weapons
While Machar victory lies in the battle field where he has what it takes to remove Kiir military wise, Kiir strength depends heavily on a couple of reasons that follow. That is Machar’s future miscalculations or blunders are likely unless he guides against pride of making too many successive victories against Kiir forces. Negotiations in one way or another are Kiir’s set trap to put Machar in a tight corner of legal quagmire. For an example if he says he is ready to accept all democratic processes under supervision of the international community as well as formation of Government of National Unity comprising of all political forces in the country with Machar being offered key decision-making position in the run up to scheduled post independence 2015 general elections. Support of East Africa regional powers of Kiir is another dangerous equation to Machar’s long match on capital Juba. For such a line is an echo of a position already adopted by United States President Barack Obama terming any takeover of power from an elected government in South Sudan as illegal.
Regional intervention
However, is unlikely the whole East African region will throw its weight behind Kiir given the strategic and economic interests of its respctive member states. Sudan can rub shoulders with whoever has the control of oilfields to protect further damage in her fledgling economy which can in turn strengthen opposition groups’ resolve to oust President Al-bashir from power. Most of these groups stand accused by Al-bashir many years on end of being supported by Kiir government. Eritrea doesn’t always support any side her arch rival Ethiopia supports. She already has a couple of grievances towards Juba such as an endemic corruption and failure to reward her with peace dividends despite huge military assistance she offered SPLM/A during the liberation war.
Even still, Ethiopia is not wholly behind Kenya and Uganda as her support to Kiir will be restrained by a myriad of economic interests back at home. The West that gives huge financial aid to her doesn’t approve of IGGAD military intervention in what it may regard as interference in South Sudan internal affairs if statement from French Ambassador to the UN and several analyses from former United States envoys to Sudan and South Sudan supportive of Machar are anything to take seriously. In the light of such stand the west will therefore warn Ethiopia of withdrawal of aid if she intervenes in the war on Kiir side. And should Machar take over militarily without her, Ethiopia risks losing her nearly idolized immense influence and investments in South Sudan if she continues to stick to someone with nothing to offer in return. This can leave Kenya whose President’s fate hangs in the balance in the International Criminal Court, ICC and Uganda facing a possible resurgence of Lord Resistance Army dangerously isolated in a region that is entirely supportive of Machar’s future government.
Deng Vanang is a journalist and executive member of South Sudan leading opposition party, SPLM-DC. He can be reached at: dvanang@yahoo.comThis e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
The Fabricated Coup (South Sudan): A Confession from a Party insider

South Sudanese president Salva kiir accuses his political rivals of a “coup”, a claim widely interpreted in South Sudan as an ‘inside job’ designed to obliterate his opponents.

By Jean C.B. [name withheld for security reasons]
December 30, 2013 (SSNA) -- The fate of this young nation is in the hands of two men whose rivalry and distrust goes back to the beginning of SPLM/SPLA. What started out as a political problem is now threatening to take this young nation to the brink of a civil war. Dr. Machar having lost his vice presidential seat realized that his only mean of ascending to power is through the democratization of SPLM. Pres. Kiir, on the other hand, understood that democratization of the party is a threat to his regime. The demands put forward by Dr. Machar and Pagan Amum at the most recent party meeting were aimed at weakening the powers of the presidency. The long term goal was multi-partism and democracy in South Sudan. But Machar, Pagan and their other ten colleagues understood that; forming their own party would be deemed as betrayal by South Sudanese. And they are reluctant to leave a party which they have been participants in building and nurturing. Pres. Kiir demands the same level of reverence and respect that was accorded to the late Dr. John Garang. However, Kiir unlike Garang is not a consensus builder. He tends to be very frustrated by political process while Dr. Garang did not personalized politics, Kiir keeps political grudges and demand complete loyalty. His failure to enforce the appointment of Telar Riing as justice minister made him very skeptical of a democratic SPLM. Afterall, Kiir is a military General who abides by the Military code of conduct.

In short, out of fear of democratic process and Dr. Machar’s presidential ambitions, Pres. Kiir has resorted to his last option: amilitary rule. This was why the presidential Guards – a majority of whom are from Kiir’s very own subclan-was formed in the first place. The Guards main job was complete loyalty to Pres. Kiir, not to the South Sudan’s president or to the Rep. of South Sudan but to Kiir himself. The only reason there were some Nuers and a small numbers from other tribes within the group was due to fear of disintegration within the SPLA. In order to nationalize the army, it was necessary to integrate the military. This was supposed to weaken likely potential rebels. In particular, the late Gen. Matip Nhial, Gen.George Athor, Gatdet Yaak and Tanginye. And also to entice YauYau, who is still rebelling against South Sudan. The overall objective in forming the presidential Guards, was to ensure Pres. Kiir remains in power by any means necessary. The aim was to ruthlessly silent the democratic voices within the party led by Dr. Machar. It must be noted that Machar was only a de facto leader of the group due to his seniority within the party.

(b) The Plan: a fabricated Military Coup And why a Coup?
A fabricated coup was the only mean of ensuring Pres. Kiir remains in power as a "failed coup" in african context is almost always justified with an establishment of a brutal military regime. The plan was to either arrest/prosecute or assassinate some the 12 politicians. An emphasis of "dead or alive" was placed in Dr. Machar's case. During this upheaval a strict curfew was to be established in juba, malakal and Bor. An immediate order was to be given to govt. Montytuil and govt. Kun pouch in unity and Upper Nile to protect the oil fields while re-inforcement arrived.
So what went wrong? For once the dreaded presidential guards being mostly young recruits and given their limited military experience in SPLA were extremely indiscipline in their execution of the presidential orders. A number of them having long held personal grievances against Machar and the Nuers in general for the Bor massacre of 1991, decided to carry out revenge attacks on the Nuer civilians in juba. This gave Machar time to escape. The guards also completely destroyed Dr. Machar's home in juba and there was a speculation in the presidential circles that he might have been killed in the rubbles. This meant a couple of hours were wasted trying to find out machar's whereabouts. And before long Gen. Gatdet in Bor had received intelligence about the massacre of Nuers in juba. Gatdet is well known for being a nationalist but a pro-nuer at heart. His objective was always to fight for Nuer first. His support for Machar is a consequence of his loyalty to Nuer and not on shared principles. As a result, Pres. Kiir and his confidants hope that Gatdet- given his new found faith in South Sudan Unity and his elevated status within the party- would take a couple of days before he get a wind of what was actually going on in Juba and make a decision to defect. During this time he would either have been persuaded to stay within the rank and let the judicial process take place or implicated in the “Coup”. Perhaps, Gatdet’s military experience and distrust of Koul Manyang and Kiir told him otherwise. Another major blow was the defection of Gen. Koang in Unity State- This was never anticipated by the high command. Kiir’s inner circle were generally inept in their execution of this plan. The major mistake was the luck of understanding of Nuer’s sentiments in the SPLA and in the populace. And the desire to deny the Nuers any elevated status within the movement by some of the staunch supporters of Pres. Kiir. There was a fear that the Nuer would coalesce around Machar upon his arrest but that ultimately Gen. Hoth Mai might be in a position to re-establish order if needed.
(c) IGAD/Geopolitics: Kenyatta & Museveni
Once, the high command received the information that Machar had escaped and that Gatdet had defected. Two objectives were put in place:
1. To immediately put down any potential mutiny within Juba. This means the execution and imprisonment of some of the senior members of SPLA who were deemed loyal to Dr. Machar. Particularly, those from Lou Nuer and Bentiu.
2. A call was made to Pres. Museveni and to Pres. Kenyatta for support. Museveni and Machar have a long history of distrust given that Museveni believed Machar “financed” the LRA. A rebel group that created havoc in northern Uganda. And Machar is not very fond of Museveni’s dictatorial tendencies and interference in South Sudan’s politics.
Mr. Kenyatta , on the other hand, wants Pipeline through Kenya and Pres. Kiir promised to deliver. Major investment plans have already been put in place to this effect. Kenya would immensey benefit from the pipeline. Machar was reluctant about the cost of building such a pipeline and believed that Kenya will hold South Sudan hostage once the pipeline has been built. Kiir would rather see a pipeline through Kenya as he didn’t trust Bashir regime. Ethiopia was not cantacted until guarantees had been made by Mr. Kenyatta and Mr. Museveni. Once support was established Mr. Kenyatta was used to woe Ethiopia’s prime minister. Note that Ethiopia is generally seen as sympathetic to Machar as there is a large population of Nuers in Ethiopia. In fact, a whole sub-clan of Nuer (Gaajak) live in Ethiopia. Furthermore, Kenyatta having been a beneficiary of tribal politics and a victim of Mr. Odinga’s political maneuvers, understood Pres. Kiir’s sentiments on Dr. Machar’s presidential ambitions. Note that Kenyatta was very supportive of Moi’s anti-multipartism in the early 1990s. He was a product of KANU- a party very much like South Sudan’s SPLM- and a beneficiary of one party rule and tribal politics. The results of the two recent elections in Kenya provide a strong evidence of tribal politics and Uhuru’s desire to transcend such politics. A goal he ultimately failed. He has been accused of instigating tribal violence that killed upto 1500 people and displaced more than 25,000 civilians. Kenyatta’s case was recently dropped due to “insufficient” evidence. However, Kenyatta’s reputation is still tarnished and the West does not trust him. Any positive efforts in helping solve South Sudan’s crisis would be welcomed by the West. There is also Chinese economic interest in East Africa and there is fear that Kenyatta’s effort might not be genuine. He is likely to be on the side of the Chinese/Khartoum.
Once this two objectives had been achieved. The next goal was to convince the international community and in particular the US government that indeed Dr. Machar carried out a coup. The problem however, was persuading Susan Rice and John Kerry to this fact. Dr. Rice having interacted with both Pres. Kiir and Dr. Machar was very skeptical. She does not believe it was in the best interest of Machar to carry out a coup. How was he going to do so without an army at his disposal? Why would he carry out a coup given that he was winning the political battle within the party? And why would Machar wants to use his tribe to face the army of South Sudan given the painful memories of 1991 and his current support from some Dinka leaders? And who would finance him given China and Sudan had made a deal with GOSS? There were too many unanswered questions. The US government did not buy into the coup allegations. The explanation given by Dr. Adwok, that there was aninfighting in the presidential Guards, was deemed more plausible.
The next step was to re-take Bor from Gen. Gatdet. Pres. Kiir then gave UPDF- Uganda’s military- the permission to bomb Gatdet’s strategic position in Bor. Machar did not want a repeat of 1991 and asked Gatdet to pull out. The truth is there was no “re-take of Bor” by the GOSS troops. Gatdet had already pulled out some hours before the government troops arrived in Bor. The skirmishes in Bor were from a small group left behind by Gatdet as a decoy. This allowed him to escape. But not before he made a major mistake in mistaking US aircraft for UPDF Planes. This was both unfortunate and very costly to Machar’s effort in persuading the US of his non-participant in the alleged coup.
(e) The Strategic Stalement: is Machar Cornered?
Right now, the objective is to re-take the oilfields and to counter any move Machar is likely to make. Pres. Kiir has succeeded so far in winning IGAD to his side. Machar is left with Khartoum and some oil fields. Machar’s demands on the surface seem basic and reasonable but in the bigger scheme of politics; they constitute a great threat to Kiir’s objective of a military rule. Machar wants the detainees to be released. He wants Pagan Amum – a nationalist and a shrewd negotiator- on his side. Pres. Kiir would be foolish in releasing Mr. Amum. And he has used Pagan’s past alleged corruption charges to keep him under arrest. Machar also wants a “credible ceasefire” to be negotiated. This would give him enough time to re-established his contacts and re-group with his detained colleagues giving them an equal status on the negotiating table and taking Kiir’s a long step-on.
Any form of power sharing would mean Machar would achieve his objective of democratizing the SPLM. In short, Machar- being the strategist -is thinking three steps ahead. But for Machar’s plan to work, he needs some leverage. Currently he has three options: The oilfields in Unity/UpperNile, The White army and Bashir/Chinese. Given Machar’s overall goal – complete independence of South Sudan from the North- the third option would be his desperate and last move. The use of White army would lead to unnecessary bloodshed in Bor and Akobo. There are some Lou Nuer in Akobo segments who are skeptical of Machar but given John Luk Jok- Akobo’s son- is in detention, Machar can persuade the Lou Nuer. And Machar needs both the Bor/twic and Lou Nuer on his side. Creating a war between the two sub-clans would leads to a result very similar to 1991. This would ultimately undermine Dr. Machar’s presidential ambition and little support from the international community. Most of his colleagues in detention are mostly Dinkas. He needs to convince the world and the Dinka community that he is not weighing a tribal warfare. While he might not be entirely convincing, he would create some doubts within the Dinka community. He needs to be seen as a non-tribalist.
The best option and the most credible move Machar is likely to make is holding Pres. Kiir’s government hostage. Machar will in effect attempt to control the oilfields in Upper Nile and Unity. But for him to get financing he needs to be able to re-direct the oil revenues to a bank account he can control. This would mean he must either make a deal with Bashir/Chinese or simply use both the oilfields and a negotiated ceasefire as a “credible threat”.
In order for Machar to retain his current control of Unity oil fields; he must control Mayom county and make a direct threat to overtaking Warrap state. He must tempt Pres. Kiir to direct all effort to Warrap state and maintain a hold of Kuajok. This would leave Jonglei vulnerable as the SPLA with its limited resources will be overstretched. Machar will then solidify his control of Akobo and use Bor as a ploy to keep hold of Mayom while being in a good position to negotiate. It should be noted that Machar is a product of the civil war and can be very resourceful. It would be a mistake for Kiir to undermine any proposals he make. Even if these demands seem rather odd. Machar is a shrewd strategist. He will not admit to defeat. The tribal politics of south sudan dictates that both the Dinka and the Nuer be participants, if there is to be any national building. Otherwise, civil war is likely to occur.
(f) What is the best outcome for South Sudan?
The best outcome for the country is for Pres. Kiir to negotiate right away with Dr. machar. Eventually, the SPLA will democratize and Pres. Kiir can still win election under a democratic South Sudan. He is likely to garner atleast the majority (51%) in any given election. Perhaps, he won’t negotiate due to influence from his close confidants (Telar Aring, Hoth Mai, Mr. Makeui Lueth, Mr. Juuk) who have more to lose in a democratic SPLM.
An immediate release of all political detainees (particularly, Mr. Amum and Mr. Alor) is a very unlikely outcome in the short run. The truth is the stalemate is likely to continue until Dr. Machar is in a strong negotiation position. A scenario I don’t foresee anytime soon. In so far, as Machar is not in a position to procure external financing, he is unlikely to achieve his short term objectives: a negotiated ceasefire settlement and the release of ALL detainees. If indeed Dr. Machar manages to somehow negotiate for himself a favorable result, it will only speak volume of his strategic capabilities and the loyalty he commands from the Nuer people. As the situation stands, Pres. Kiir is in a winnable position, but a position that could ultimately lead to the very dreaded civil war if he overplay his hand and tempt fate. Makuei and Kol Manyang are currently persuading him in that direction. This would be an ill-advised move, as it would simply prolong the stalemate and led to civil war.
After many decades of warfare, 2014 should be a year of re-unification for South Sudanese. It’s upon the two leaders to put aside their differences for the sake of national interest. Politics must stop at the water’s edge.
This is a good analysis of the current situation in South Sudan by Mr. Jean C.B.
what is have to add is that majority of South Sudanese have had enough and wants an end to KIIR'S regime by all mean possible. I can't with stand Kiir presidency, not after creating this genocide. He has butchered Civilians and failed to even come out to the South Sudanese people & tell them the truth but instead denied and fabricate the matter.
If Museveni goes after Machar, he will never get enough sleep again until his mind get rotten.
kajokeji Matut
Dr. Machar is warrior and an intellectual. He will win the struggle of the people of South Sudan regardless of IGAD's involvement in In this struggle for freedom. My experience in South Sudan is that no body is free until Kirr and his group in thrown out the Power. Let the IGAD come into South Sudan to help in the oppression of South Sudan, and surely they will regret to find out that the majority of south Sudanese do not support Salva Kirr The only way for them keep Kirr in power and loot the resources of South Sudan is if they could kill all south Sudanese with the exception of Dinka Bahar El Ghazal.

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