Confederation Council Foundation for Africa Inc.,
From: Maurice J. Oduor
Sent: Friday, January 3, 2014 12:06 AM
Subject: Re: South Sudan rebel delegation holds talks with IGAD mediators
There seems to be a lot of tension surrounding this gathering. Are these signals for more trouble??? The world is keenly watching..............Judy Miriga
Confederation Council Foundation for Africa Inc.,
http://socioeconomicforum50.blogspot.com/=====================Friday 3 January 2014
U.S evacuates its embassy personnel over S. Sudan crisisJanuary 3, 2014 (JUBA) – The United States has ordered its embassy personnel in the South Sudan to leave in the wake of the country’s deteriorating security situation.
- U.S. ambassador to South Sudan Sudan D. Page (AP Photo)An emergency statement from the US embassy in the capital, Juba urges its citizens living in the world’s youngest nation to depart by Friday.“On January 3, 2014, there will be an evacuation flight arranged by the Department of State to the nearest safe haven country,” partly reads the statement on its website.The embassy further said it would no longer be able to provide any consular services to U.S. citizens in the country starting 4 January.“U.S. citizens who are not able to take advantage of the evacuation flight should review their personal security situation and strongly consider taking advantage of any existing commercial flights”, adds the statement.The evacuation order comes as ceasefire talks get underway in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia between the South Sudanese government delegation and rebels loyal the country’s former vice-president, Riek Machar.East African regional leaders and the international community have backed calls for dialogue in a country, which suffered over two decades of civil war before a 2005 peace deal led to its independence from Sudan two years ago.MORE SOLIDARITYThe US envoy to Juba has vowed to work together with the South Sudanese people to promote “nine days of peace and patriotism”, leading to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) day.“While the country’s leadership may have signed the agreement which officially began the peace process in 2005, now, 2014, is the time for South Sudan’s people to follow through with their own self-determination for peace”, Susan Page said in a new year message.Together, we are determined for January 9 to once again mark a cessation of hostilities, an end to violence, and an onset to peaceful beginnings throughout all of South Sudan, she added.An outbreak of violence in the country mid-December last year has caused more than 1,000 deaths and nearly 200,000 people left homeless in various parts of the country.(ST)==============================All Sudan are now dying.
South Sudan ceasefire talks open as battles rageAddis Ababa (AFP) - South Sudan's warring parties opened negotiations on Friday to end nearly three weeks of raging conflict which has left thousands feared dead and taken the world's youngest nation to the brink of all-out civil war.Government and rebel negotiating teams are at a luxury hotel in neighbouring Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa, with the rivals first meeting special envoys from regional nations.But fighting is continuing in South Sudan, with the army vowing to retake the town of Bor from rebel forces for a second time.The ongoing battles prompted the top UN aid official in South Sudan, Toby Lanzer, to warn that soldiers and rebels must protect civilians and aid workers, or risk worsening a situation he described as "critical".The US embassy in South Sudan ordered a further pullout of staff and urged all citizens to leave on an evacuation flight it has organised due to the "deteriorating security situation."Ethiopia's foreign ministry confirmed that negotiations had started, adding that the regional East African bloc IGAD that is helping to broker a deal "was committed to support in any way possible".Sources suggested the rivals may not meet directly until at least Saturday."We are participating in talks because we want peace for our people even though the rebel groups have not accepted a cessation of hostilities," the South Sudan government said in a statement late Thursday.Thousands of people are feared to have been killed in the fighting, pitting army units loyal to President Salva Kiir against a loose alliance of ethnic militia forces and mutinous army commanders nominally headed by ex-vice president Riek Machar.Fighting erupted on December 15 when Kiir accused Machar of attempting a coup in the oil-rich but impoverished nation.Machar has denied this, in turn accusing the president of conducting a violent purge of his opponents and refusing to hold direct talks with Kiir.Civilians in dire need of aidFighting has spread across the country, with the rebels seizing several areas in the oil-rich north.Aid workers have increased warnings of a worsening crisis for civilians affected by the conflict in the landlocked country of almost 11 million people."All parties to the conflict have a responsibility to make sure that civilians are spared from the fighting," said Lanzer, the UN humanitarian coordinator."We call on all parties to facilitate aid agencies’ access to civilians, and to protect and respect humanitarian activities."Almost three weeks of violence has forced around 200,000 people to flee their homes and "affected many hundreds of thousands of people indirectly", Lanzer added.Some 57,000 are seeking refuge with badly overstretched UN peacekeepers.The UN peacekeeping force said this week "atrocities are continuing to occur" across the country, which won independence from Sudan in 2011 after decades of civil war.One of the hardest hit areas is the rebel-held town of Bor, the capital of Jonglei state and situated just 200 kilometres (125 miles) north of the capital Juba, which has changed hands three times since the fighting erupted.On Thursday, army spokesman Philip Aguer said troops were "advancing again" on the town, with reports of clashes outside Bor on Friday.Tens of thousands have fled, many paddling in simple boats across the White Nile river to escape the fighting to Awerial in neighbouring Lakes.Amid the fighting, the talks in Addis Ababa have been welcomed.UN special envoy Hilde Johnson stressed the need for "reconciliation and healing".The conflict has been marked by an upsurge of ethnic violence pitting members of Kiir's Dinka tribe against Machar's Nuer community.The United Nations reported "extra-judicial killings of civilians and captured soldiers" and the "discovery of large numbers of bodies" in the capital Juba as well as in the towns of Bor and Malakal.The army has set up committees into the killing of "innocent people", the government said Thursday, and another into the bitter infighting within the presidential guard units that were the reported first shots in the conflict.Machar told AFP on Tuesday that he was not yet ready to agree to an immediate ceasefire nor hold face-to-face talks with Kiir.Kiir has described the war as "senseless", but has ruled out power sharing with the rebels."If you want power, you don't rebel so that you are awarded with the power," Kiir said in an interview broadcast on the BBC.=========================South Sudan rebel delegation holds talks with IGAD mediatorsFriday 3 January 2014By Tesfa-Alem TekleJanuary 2, 2014 (ADDIS ABABA) – Negotiators from the South Sudanese government and rebels have arrived in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, but the two sides have not begun talks to end almost three weeks of violence.
- President Uhuru Kenyatta prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn and President Yoweri Museveni at the IGAD meeting on December 27, 2013 (Photo: PSCU)Some of the rebel team members arrived on Wednesday with the remainder arriving in Addis Ababa earlier on Thursday. The government’s delegation led by former foreign minister Nhial Deng Nhial arrived on Thursday afternoon.The rebel negotiators held talks with Ethiopia’s former foreign minister, Seyoum Mesfin who is leading the mediating team from the East African regional bloc IGAD - the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development.The peace talks are expected to start tomorrow but Ethiopian officials have refused to confirm.Following the talks, the rebel negotiators twice attempted to hold a press conference at the Addis Ababa Sheraton Hotel but they were prevented on both occasions by the Ethiopian authorities for undisclosed reasons.Riek Machar, who is leading the rebels and those opposed to President Salva Kiir within the ruling SPLM, has agreed in principle to a ceasefire but has so far maintained that a monitoring mechanism must be established before the talks can begin.It is unclear whether the former Vice President is sticking to this stance considering that his negotiating team has already arrived in Addis Ababa.A source close to rebel negotiating team told Sudan Tribune that the peace talks are facing a setback from the start because Kiir failed to meet Machar’s preconditions, which include the release of all political prisoners.Following fighting in capital Juba on December 15 between members of the Presidential Guard, Kiir accused Machar and 13 others of attempting to overthrow him. Machar and Taban Deng Gai - the former governor of Unity state who is now leading rebel’s negotiating team - managed to flee the capital but 11 senior SPLM members were arrested.The South Sudanese government has only agreed to release eight of the 11 detainees. Rebecca Nyandeng, the widow of the late SPLM leader John Garang was not arrested but her house was surrounded by soldiers in the days following the alleged coup.Since the fighting began in Juba, large parts of the South Sudanese army (SPLA) defected, first in Jonglei, then in Unity and Upper Nile states.Mediators say the talks in Ethiopia’s capital will focus entirely on reaching an immediate ceasefire agreement.The United Nations says that at least 1,000 people have been killed and over 200,000 people displaced from their home since the violence started.International pressure has mounted against the two factions to end hostilities. Although the trigger for the fighting appears to have been political tension within the ruling SPLM some of the fighting has been along ethnic lines according to human rights groups and witnesses.The SPLM politicians who have recently accused Kiir of being increasingly dictatorial, are from a range of South Sudan’s many ethnic groups and have accused the President of using the army infighting to silence his critics.The UN has called upon the sides to reach into an immediate truce to stop the ethnic-based atrocities that have characterised some of the conflict. Tens of thousands of civilians have sought shelter at UN bases.President Kiir on Wednesday declared a state of emergency in the rebel controlled towns of Bentiu and Bor, in Unity and Jonglei state respectively.(ST)
South Sudan Rebels Want Prisoners Released at Peace TalksVOA - January 02Marthe van der WolfJanuary 02, 2014ADDIS ABABA — Releasing their imprisoned colleagues will be a top priority for South Sudanese rebels during peace talks that are to start Friday in Ethiopia. The government arrested some pro-rebel officials during the initial outbreak of fighting in South Sudan's capital, Juba, last month. Delegates of former South Sudanese vice president Riek Machar see the release of detained prisoners as an important goal during the peace talks.The rebels and delegates of the South Sudanese government are set to start face-to-face negotiations Friday.Spokesperson for the rebel troops Hussein Mar Nyuot said the issue of the detainees is a very serious matter, as he feels they should also participate in the negotiations:“With the prisoners, they were actually detained because of [the] alleged coup. And these are the senior members of the SPLM, which is actually the ruling party of the country. And we want them to be part of these talks because what caused the problem is actually an issue of conflict within the SPLM,” said Nyuot.The negotiations will start while fighting continues in South Sudan. Rebels reclaimed the key city of Bor Wednesday, 120 kilometers outside Juba. They also control Jonglei state and the two oil-rich states of Upper Nile and Unity.Along with a possible ceasefire, negotiators will likely discuss the outbreak of ethnic violence between supporters of Machar, a member of the Nuer tribe, and supporters President Salva Kiir, an ethnic Dinka.But spokesperson Nyuot said the topics to be discussed have not been decided.“We are positive, and will see how it goes tomorrow. I do not want to predict. I do not want to set the agenda before people actually agree on the agenda. I do not want to expose our agenda, what we are coming, because the mediators will have to put the agenda together,” said Nyuot.Fighting in South Sudan started December 15, when a group of soldiers attacked army headquarters in Juba. The next day, President Kiir accused Machar of attempting a coup.The fighting has killed more than 1,000 people and displaced about 200,000 others. It is feared the conflict might escalate into an all-out civil war.President Kiir has said there will be no power-sharing deal.South Sudan is the world's newest nation, having separated from Sudan in July 2011 after decades of war.Machar told VOA South Sudan in Focus Wednesday that President Kiir was responsible for much of the unrest, and that peace cannot be achieved under Kiir's leadership."He has disunited the country. There is a massacre in Juba, 'ethnic cleansing' in Juba," he said. "I don't think Salva Kiir can unite the people anymore."Machar said South Sudan's citizens should join him in a bid to force the president to step down, if he does not do so voluntarily.===========================I can’t sleep over South Sudan - Museveni"Jaruo iko headache"Stress factor: President Yoweri Museveni wants peace restored in South Sudan
The Observer - January 02BY TREVOR BALEKE, DEO WALUSIMBI & AGENCIESUnder fire for threatening war against the rebel former Vice President of South Sudan Riek Machar, President Museveni said on Wednesday that he was not sleeping much, worried about South Sudan which faces the prospect of a prolonged war.Speaking at the Golden jubilee celebration (50 years) of the Universal Apostles Fellowship Church of Righteousness at Kirama in Namwimwa sub-county, Kaliro, Museveni said that since war broke out in South Sudan, he had kept monitoring the situation 24hours a day, to ensure that Africa’s newest country regains her sanity.“I’m not sleeping… [I am] monitoring the crisis which is taking place in the young country of South Sudan and I want to see that peace is attained there,” Museveni said.On Monday President Museveni had said regional leaders would fight Machar, if he failed to honour last week’s demand for a ceasefire agreed in Nairobi, Kenya.“We gave Riek Machar some four days to respond, and if he doesn’t, we shall have to go for him, all of us in IGAD. That is what we agreed upon in Nairobi,” Museveni told journalists in Juba.Machar, in a statement on Tuesday condemned Museveni’s threats. Machar and former minister Peter Adwok Nyaba also rallied on Tuesday against President Museveni. Machar warned Museveni against interfering in the internal affairs of South Sudan as the conflict in the world’s newest country rages on. However, in the same statement, Machar welcomed the regional leaders’ call for cessation of hostilities but quickly warned that the involvement of Museveni in the conflict could escalate it.Speaking at a press conference on Tuesday, Ndorwa East MP Wilfred Niwagaba said: “But the reasons being given by the president are worrying and disturbing because they don’t portray the principle of reconciliation. He should disqualify himself as a mediator … he is also putting at risk the lives of Ugandans in South Sudan.”MPs back MuseveniHowever, MPs Tonny Ayoo (Kwania) Dr Kenneth Omona (Kaberamaido) and Peter Ogwang (Eastern Youth MP) have come to Museveni’s defence. At a press conference yesterday, they said in making the war threat, the president was communicating the regional leaders’, IGAD’s, position.“Those accusations against President Museveni that he declared war against Machar are lies because he was communicating the position by IGAD,” said Dr Omona, at a press conference at Parliament yesterday.“It was not Museveni who warned Machar and his rebel group in South Sudan but he was a messenger of IGAD. Why should people ignore the actor and attack the messenger?” he asked.On claims that Museveni deployed troops in South Sudan without Parliamentary approval, they said the MPs’ nod of approval would have come a little too late yet there was anemergency in South Sudan which needed the “agent intervention of UPDF to evacuate Ugandans trapped in South Sudan.”However, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir on Wednesday declared a state of emergency in two of the country’s states, ordering the national army (SPLA) to fight dissident rebels.EmergencyThe South Sudanese government said in a short statement released via Twitter on Wednesday that a state of emergency had been declared in Unity and Jonglei states.“President Salva [Kiir] has declared the state of emergency in Unity and Jonglei”, the tweet read.The president, under the country’s transitional constitution, has powers to declare a state of emergency in consultation with the national legislative assembly and appoint a caretaker government in the affected area under the leadership of a military officer. It remains unclear what necessitated the president’s impromptu decision, which could partly be linked to the presence of dissident rebels fighting government forces in the two strategic areas.The president’s new directive comes as ceasefire talks between South Sudan rebels and government get underway in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) leaders. Observers and independent analysts, however, wonder whether more troops on the ground would make any difference to the already worrying situation as the military continues losing battles in some key towns.Kiir also formed a crisis management committee, headed by vice president James Wani Igga, urging politicians in the affected areas to cooperate with the armed forces and other security organs.This is the first time the president has officially declared a state of emergency in the country, weeks after a curfew was imposed in the capital Juba following violent clashes that erupted mid-December between members of the presidential guards.=======================The Fabricated Coup (South Sudan): A Confession from a Party insiderSouth Sudanese president Salva kiir accuses his political rivals of a “coup”, a claim widely interpreted in South Sudan as an ‘inside job’ designed to obliterate his opponents.By Jean C.B. [name withheld for security reasons](a) SPLM & DEMOCRACY:December 30, 2013 (SSNA) -- The fate of this young nation is in the hands of two men whose rivalry and distrust goes back to the beginning of SPLM/SPLA. What started out as a political problem is now threatening to take this young nation to the brink of a civil war. Dr. Machar having lost his vice presidential seat realized that his only mean of ascending to power is through the democratization of SPLM. Pres. Kiir, on the other hand, understood that democratization of the party is a threat to his regime. The demands put forward by Dr. Machar and Pagan Amum at the most recent party meeting were aimed at weakening the powers of the presidency. The long term goal was multi-partism and democracy in South Sudan. But Machar, Pagan and their other ten colleagues understood that; forming their own party would be deemed as betrayal by South Sudanese. And they are reluctant to leave a party which they have been participants in building and nurturing. Pres. Kiir demands the same level of reverence and respect that was accorded to the late Dr. John Garang. However, Kiir unlike Garang is not a consensus builder. He tends to be very frustrated by political process while Dr. Garang did not personalized politics, Kiir keeps political grudges and demand complete loyalty. His failure to enforce the appointment of Telar Riing as justice minister made him very skeptical of a democratic SPLM. Afterall, Kiir is a military General who abides by the Military code of conduct.In short, out of fear of democratic process and Dr. Machar’s presidential ambitions, Pres. Kiir has resorted to his last option: amilitary rule. This was why the presidential Guards – a majority of whom are from Kiir’s very own subclan-was formed in the first place. The Guards main job was complete loyalty to Pres. Kiir, not to the South Sudan’s president or to the Rep. of South Sudan but to Kiir himself. The only reason there were some Nuers and a small numbers from other tribes within the group was due to fear of disintegration within the SPLA. In order to nationalize the army, it was necessary to integrate the military. This was supposed to weaken likely potential rebels. In particular, the late Gen. Matip Nhial, Gen.George Athor, Gatdet Yaak and Tanginye. And also to entice YauYau, who is still rebelling against South Sudan. The overall objective in forming the presidential Guards, was to ensure Pres. Kiir remains in power by any means necessary. The aim was to ruthlessly silent the democratic voices within the party led by Dr. Machar. It must be noted that Machar was only a de facto leader of the group due to his seniority within the party.(b) The Plan: a fabricated Military Coup And why a Coup?A fabricated coup was the only mean of ensuring Pres. Kiir remains in power as a "failed coup" in african context is almost always justified with an establishment of a brutal military regime. The plan was to either arrest/prosecute or assassinate some the 12 politicians. An emphasis of "dead or alive" was placed in Dr. Machar's case. During this upheaval a strict curfew was to be established in juba, malakal and Bor. An immediate order was to be given to govt. Montytuil and govt. Kun pouch in unity and Upper Nile to protect the oil fields while re-inforcement arrived.So what went wrong? For once the dreaded presidential guards being mostly young recruits and given their limited military experience in SPLA were extremely indiscipline in their execution of the presidential orders. A number of them having long held personal grievances against Machar and the Nuers in general for the Bor massacre of 1991, decided to carry out revenge attacks on the Nuer civilians in juba. This gave Machar time to escape. The guards also completely destroyed Dr. Machar's home in juba and there was a speculation in the presidential circles that he might have been killed in the rubbles. This meant a couple of hours were wasted trying to find out machar's whereabouts. And before long Gen. Gatdet in Bor had received intelligence about the massacre of Nuers in juba. Gatdet is well known for being a nationalist but a pro-nuer at heart. His objective was always to fight for Nuer first. His support for Machar is a consequence of his loyalty to Nuer and not on shared principles. As a result, Pres. Kiir and his confidants hope that Gatdet- given his new found faith in South Sudan Unity and his elevated status within the party- would take a couple of days before he get a wind of what was actually going on in Juba and make a decision to defect. During this time he would either have been persuaded to stay within the rank and let the judicial process take place or implicated in the “Coup”. Perhaps, Gatdet’s military experience and distrust of Koul Manyang and Kiir told him otherwise. Another major blow was the defection of Gen. Koang in Unity State- This was never anticipated by the high command. Kiir’s inner circle were generally inept in their execution of this plan. The major mistake was the luck of understanding of Nuer’s sentiments in the SPLA and in the populace. And the desire to deny the Nuers any elevated status within the movement by some of the staunch supporters of Pres. Kiir. There was a fear that the Nuer would coalesce around Machar upon his arrest but that ultimately Gen. Hoth Mai might be in a position to re-establish order if needed.(c) IGAD/Geopolitics: Kenyatta & MuseveniOnce, the high command received the information that Machar had escaped and that Gatdet had defected. Two objectives were put in place:1. To immediately put down any potential mutiny within Juba. This means the execution and imprisonment of some of the senior members of SPLA who were deemed loyal to Dr. Machar. Particularly, those from Lou Nuer and Bentiu.2. A call was made to Pres. Museveni and to Pres. Kenyatta for support. Museveni and Machar have a long history of distrust given that Museveni believed Machar “financed” the LRA. A rebel group that created havoc in northern Uganda. And Machar is not very fond of Museveni’s dictatorial tendencies and interference in South Sudan’s politics.Mr. Kenyatta , on the other hand, wants Pipeline through Kenya and Pres. Kiir promised to deliver. Major investment plans have already been put in place to this effect. Kenya would immensey benefit from the pipeline. Machar was reluctant about the cost of building such a pipeline and believed that Kenya will hold South Sudan hostage once the pipeline has been built. Kiir would rather see a pipeline through Kenya as he didn’t trust Bashir regime. Ethiopia was not cantacted until guarantees had been made by Mr. Kenyatta and Mr. Museveni. Once support was established Mr. Kenyatta was used to woe Ethiopia’s prime minister. Note that Ethiopia is generally seen as sympathetic to Machar as there is a large population of Nuers in Ethiopia. In fact, a whole sub-clan of Nuer (Gaajak) live in Ethiopia. Furthermore, Kenyatta having been a beneficiary of tribal politics and a victim of Mr. Odinga’s political maneuvers, understood Pres. Kiir’s sentiments on Dr. Machar’s presidential ambitions. Note that Kenyatta was very supportive of Moi’s anti-multipartism in the early 1990s. He was a product of KANU- a party very much like South Sudan’s SPLM- and a beneficiary of one party rule and tribal politics. The results of the two recent elections in Kenya provide a strong evidence of tribal politics and Uhuru’s desire to transcend such politics. A goal he ultimately failed. He has been accused of instigating tribal violence that killed upto 1500 people and displaced more than 25,000 civilians. Kenyatta’s case was recently dropped due to “insufficient” evidence. However, Kenyatta’s reputation is still tarnished and the West does not trust him. Any positive efforts in helping solve South Sudan’s crisis would be welcomed by the West. There is also Chinese economic interest in East Africa and there is fear that Kenyatta’s effort might not be genuine. He is likely to be on the side of the Chinese/Khartoum.Once this two objectives had been achieved. The next goal was to convince the international community and in particular the US government that indeed Dr. Machar carried out a coup. The problem however, was persuading Susan Rice and John Kerry to this fact. Dr. Rice having interacted with both Pres. Kiir and Dr. Machar was very skeptical. She does not believe it was in the best interest of Machar to carry out a coup. How was he going to do so without an army at his disposal? Why would he carry out a coup given that he was winning the political battle within the party? And why would Machar wants to use his tribe to face the army of South Sudan given the painful memories of 1991 and his current support from some Dinka leaders? And who would finance him given China and Sudan had made a deal with GOSS? There were too many unanswered questions. The US government did not buy into the coup allegations. The explanation given by Dr. Adwok, that there was aninfighting in the presidential Guards, was deemed more plausible.(d) MILITARY INTERVENTION IN BOR:The next step was to re-take Bor from Gen. Gatdet. Pres. Kiir then gave UPDF- Uganda’s military- the permission to bomb Gatdet’s strategic position in Bor. Machar did not want a repeat of 1991 and asked Gatdet to pull out. The truth is there was no “re-take of Bor” by the GOSS troops. Gatdet had already pulled out some hours before the government troops arrived in Bor. The skirmishes in Bor were from a small group left behind by Gatdet as a decoy. This allowed him to escape. But not before he made a major mistake in mistaking US aircraft for UPDF Planes. This was both unfortunate and very costly to Machar’s effort in persuading the US of his non-participant in the alleged coup.(e) The Strategic Stalement: is Machar Cornered?Right now, the objective is to re-take the oilfields and to counter any move Machar is likely to make. Pres. Kiir has succeeded so far in winning IGAD to his side. Machar is left with Khartoum and some oil fields. Machar’s demands on the surface seem basic and reasonable but in the bigger scheme of politics; they constitute a great threat to Kiir’s objective of a military rule. Machar wants the detainees to be released. He wants Pagan Amum – a nationalist and a shrewd negotiator- on his side. Pres. Kiir would be foolish in releasing Mr. Amum. And he has used Pagan’s past alleged corruption charges to keep him under arrest. Machar also wants a “credible ceasefire” to be negotiated. This would give him enough time to re-established his contacts and re-group with his detained colleagues giving them an equal status on the negotiating table and taking Kiir’s a long step-on.Any form of power sharing would mean Machar would achieve his objective of democratizing the SPLM. In short, Machar- being the strategist -is thinking three steps ahead. But for Machar’s plan to work, he needs some leverage. Currently he has three options: The oilfields in Unity/UpperNile, The White army and Bashir/Chinese. Given Machar’s overall goal – complete independence of South Sudan from the North- the third option would be his desperate and last move. The use of White army would lead to unnecessary bloodshed in Bor and Akobo. There are some Lou Nuer in Akobo segments who are skeptical of Machar but given John Luk Jok- Akobo’s son- is in detention, Machar can persuade the Lou Nuer. And Machar needs both the Bor/twic and Lou Nuer on his side. Creating a war between the two sub-clans would leads to a result very similar to 1991. This would ultimately undermine Dr. Machar’s presidential ambition and little support from the international community. Most of his colleagues in detention are mostly Dinkas. He needs to convince the world and the Dinka community that he is not weighing a tribal warfare. While he might not be entirely convincing, he would create some doubts within the Dinka community. He needs to be seen as a non-tribalist.The best option and the most credible move Machar is likely to make is holding Pres. Kiir’s government hostage. Machar will in effect attempt to control the oilfields in Upper Nile and Unity. But for him to get financing he needs to be able to re-direct the oil revenues to a bank account he can control. This would mean he must either make a deal with Bashir/Chinese or simply use both the oilfields and a negotiated ceasefire as a “credible threat”.In order for Machar to retain his current control of Unity oil fields; he must control Mayom county and make a direct threat to overtaking Warrap state. He must tempt Pres. Kiir to direct all effort to Warrap state and maintain a hold of Kuajok. This would leave Jonglei vulnerable as the SPLA with its limited resources will be overstretched. Machar will then solidify his control of Akobo and use Bor as a ploy to keep hold of Mayom while being in a good position to negotiate. It should be noted that Machar is a product of the civil war and can be very resourceful. It would be a mistake for Kiir to undermine any proposals he make. Even if these demands seem rather odd. Machar is a shrewd strategist. He will not admit to defeat. The tribal politics of south sudan dictates that both the Dinka and the Nuer be participants, if there is to be any national building. Otherwise, civil war is likely to occur.(f) What is the best outcome for South Sudan?The best outcome for the country is for Pres. Kiir to negotiate right away with Dr. machar. Eventually, the SPLA will democratize and Pres. Kiir can still win election under a democratic South Sudan. He is likely to garner atleast the majority (51%) in any given election. Perhaps, he won’t negotiate due to influence from his close confidants (Telar Aring, Hoth Mai, Mr. Makeui Lueth, Mr. Juuk) who have more to lose in a democratic SPLM.An immediate release of all political detainees (particularly, Mr. Amum and Mr. Alor) is a very unlikely outcome in the short run. The truth is the stalemate is likely to continue until Dr. Machar is in a strong negotiation position. A scenario I don’t foresee anytime soon. In so far, as Machar is not in a position to procure external financing, he is unlikely to achieve his short term objectives: a negotiated ceasefire settlement and the release of ALL detainees. If indeed Dr. Machar manages to somehow negotiate for himself a favorable result, it will only speak volume of his strategic capabilities and the loyalty he commands from the Nuer people. As the situation stands, Pres. Kiir is in a winnable position, but a position that could ultimately lead to the very dreaded civil war if he overplay his hand and tempt fate. Makuei and Kol Manyang are currently persuading him in that direction. This would be an ill-advised move, as it would simply prolong the stalemate and led to civil war.After many decades of warfare, 2014 should be a year of re-unification for South Sudanese. It’s upon the two leaders to put aside their differences for the sake of national interest. Politics must stop at the water’s edge.COMMENTS:This is a good analysis of the current situation in South Sudan by Mr. Jean C.B.
what is have to add is that majority of South Sudanese have had enough and wants an end to KIIR'S regime by all mean possible. I can't with stand Kiir presidency, not after creating this genocide. He has butchered Civilians and failed to even come out to the South Sudanese people & tell them the truth but instead denied and fabricate the matter.LualdiitIf Museveni goes after Machar, he will never get enough sleep again until his mind get rotten.
Lualdiitkajokeji MatutDr. Machar is warrior and an intellectual. He will win the struggle of the people of South Sudan regardless of IGAD's involvement in In this struggle for freedom. My experience in South Sudan is that no body is free until Kirr and his group in thrown out the Power. Let the IGAD come into South Sudan to help in the oppression of South Sudan, and surely they will regret to find out that the majority of south Sudanese do not support Salva Kirr The only way for them keep Kirr in power and loot the resources of South Sudan is if they could kill all south Sudanese with the exception of Dinka Bahar El Ghazal.