Poll: Hillary Clinton Weakens on Trustworthiness While Jeb Bush Slides Into GOP Free-For-All
Weakening ratings for Hillary Clinton
present opportunities for her potential Republican opponents, even as
their own contest morphs into an all-out free-for-all, with Jeb Bush surrendering his frontrunner status in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.
While still far ahead for her party’s nomination, Clinton faces
challenges. She’s slipped underwater in personal favorability for the
first time since her unsuccessful run for the presidency in 2008. She’s
deeper in the hole for honesty and trustworthiness – down 5 points in
just two months and 12 points in the last year. And Americans by 17- to
24-point margins disapprove of her handling of recent questions on her
use of personal e-mail while secretary of state, her handling of the
Benghazi attack in Libya and fundraising by her family’s foundation.
Indeed, while Bush has lost ground in the contest for the GOP
nomination, Clinton does less well against him in a head-to-head
matchup. The gap between them has closed from 12 points to three – 47-44
percent, Clinton-Bush, among registered voters, vs. 53-41 percent two
months ago.
Bush, at the same time, has even greater difficulties with personal
favorability than Clinton, and a far weaker home base. He’s lost 11
points in support for the nomination among Republicans and GOP-leaning
independents who are registered to vote, from a front-running 21 percent
in March to 10 percent now, smack alongside Scott Walker and Rand Paul (11 percent apiece) and Marco Rubio (10 percent). Mike Huckabee has 9 percent support, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson, 8 percent each.
Bush’s decline has come among Republicans (as opposed to GOP-leaning
independents) and evangelicals – groups with high turnout in GOP
primaries and caucuses – as well as among moderates. His difficulties
include baggage from his brother’s administration; the public by an
18-point margin disapproves of how he’s answered questions about whether
he would have ordered the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. And 55 percent of
Americans see Bush as out of touch with the concerns of average
Americans – a greater weakness for him than this measure is for Clinton.
That said, the questions facing Clinton – particularly regarding
Benghazi and her foundation’s fundraising – are more apt than a
hypothetical Iraq do-over to be seen as legitimate issues in the 2016
campaign. Her decline vs. Bush among registered voters, from 53 percent
in March to 47 percent now, is a significant one.
The churn in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates,
is fascinating: A weaker result for Bush in his base, a better result
for him against Clinton. Add to that one more finding: Whatever their
current positions, were it a Bush-Clinton matchup, the public by 55-39
percent thinks Clinton would win.
Republican Field
Bush, of course, hasn’t even announced his candidacy; he’s expected to
do so later this month. Among those who are in the race, it’s Rubio
who’s shown the most movement – up 7 points in personal favorability,
down 7 in unfavorable views, since the last ABC/Post poll completed
March 29. His 10 percent support for the nomination, while underwhelming
in real terms, is numerically his highest in ABC/Post polls in the past
year.
Rubio also has the distinction of being the only one of nine potential
GOP candidates tested for favorability in this poll who’s not underwater
in this most basic measure of popularity. But he has fairly low
recognition overall – 31-31 percent, favorable-unfavorable, with the
rest up in the air.
By comparison just more than half of Americans, 51 percent, see Bush
unfavorably; he’s rated more negatively than positively by a 19-point
margin. Nearly as many, 48 percent, see Chris Christie
unfavorably, and he’s underwater by 26 points. The measuring stick is
submerged by 19 points for Rick Santorum, 13 points for Huckabee and
Cruz, 10 points for Walker and 9 for Paul.
That leaves one with the submarine trophy: Donald Trump,
who’s announced that he’ll make his intentions known June 16. A
remarkable 71 percent of Americans see him unfavorably, just 16 percent
favorably. After the economic dislocation of the last eight years, being
associated with the phrase “you’re fired” may not be the best career
move for a would-be candidate.
Democratic Field
On the Democratic side, 45 percent of Americans see Clinton favorably
overall, vs. 49 percent unfavorably. Her favorable rating has plummeted
by 22 points from 67 percent during her popular tenure as secretary of
state.
Perhaps most alarmingly for her campaign, the number who see Clinton as
honest and trustworthy has dropped from 53 percent a year ago, then 46
percent two months ago, to 41 percent now. Fifty-two percent now don’t
see her as honest and trustworthy, the most, again, since April 2008.
And while she’s 11 points underwater on this score, Bush is +5, 45-40
percent – not better than Clinton in being seen as honest, but less bad,
with more undecided.
Some of this reflects the consequences of Clinton re-entering the
political fray, but some is self-inflicted. Just 31 percent of Americans
approve of the way she’s handled questions about her use of personal
e-mail while secretary of state; 55 percent disapprove. It’s 33-50
percent, approve-disapprove, on her handling of questions on Benghazi
and on her family’s foundation.
Moreover, 48, 55 and 53 percent, respectively, call these legitimate
issues in the campaign. (Forty-four percent see questions about whether
Jeb Bush would have ordered the Iraq invasion as a legitimate issue.)
Whatever her difficulties, Clinton commands 62 percent support for the
nomination among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who are
registered to vote. Joe Biden has 14 percent support and Bernie Sanders
steps into Elizabeth Warren’s shoes with 10 percent. (Having said she
won’t run, Warren was left off the list in this survey.)
Empathy
One potential differentiator is the extent to which a candidate is seen
to “understand the problems of people like you” – something Clinton’s
clearly focused on since announcing her candidacy. There’s good reason
for that: Social psychology research has shown that gender stereotypes
make it more challenging for a woman than for a man to be seen as
competent and to be personally popular at the same time. And empathy can
be an important political attribute; it was key to Barack Obama’s
re-election over Mitt Romney in 2012.
Clinton’s efforts may be helping her: Even as she’s lost ground more
generally, she’s held essentially steady on empathy. Forty-nine percent
of Americans think she understands their problems, vs. 47 percent two
months ago, before she announced her candidacy April 12.
It’s an attribute on which Clinton is rated considerably better than
Bush – just 35 percent think he understands their problems, while 55
percent think he does not. Clinton has an 11-point comparative advantage
on this question among independents and 18 points among moderates. And
while whites are equally likely to see Clinton and Bush as empathetic,
two-thirds of nonwhites say Clinton understands their problems, while
just 28 percent say the same about Bush. A vast advantage among
nonwhites, a growing slice of the electorate, is key for Clinton.
In a related question, the public divides, 44-42 percent, on what’s more
important to them, a presidential candidate’s positions on the issues,
or his or her empathy. And it cuts to vote: Clinton leads Bush by 54-36
percent among registered voters focused on a candidate who understands
their problems, while it’s a 50-42 percent Bush-Clinton race among those
more concerned with policy. Clinton’s focus on empathy, then, is likely
to be a persistent feature of her campaign.
Honesty
As noted, Clinton’s lost 12 points in being seen as honest and
trustworthy since June 2014. That’s occurred disproportionately in three
groups: college graduates (from 57 percent to 34 percent), white
Catholics (from 50 to 27 percent; they’re a sometimes swing-voting
group) and urban dwellers (from 67 to 47 percent).
Clinton's more likely to be seen as trustworthy in some of her core
groups, including more women than men (49 vs. 32 percent) and more
non-whites than whites (59 vs. 32 percent). Seven in 10 Democrats see
her as trustworthy vs. 36 percent of independents and 14 percent of
Republicans. But in each of these groups, her ratings have declined, at
least numerically.
Notably, even among those who intend to vote for her in the Democratic
primary, just 78 percent see Clinton as trustworthy. And her rating on
this score is particularly weak among those who disapprove of her
handling of questions about Clinton Foundation fundraising, personal
e-mail and Benghazi.
Bush, for his part, is seen as honest and trustworthy by 53 percent of
adults over 50 vs. just 37 percent of younger adults, and more so among
college graduates than non-graduates, 55 vs. 40 percent.
Legacy
On the legacy front, Clinton is somewhat more apt than Bush to be seen
as her own person in policy terms. Sixty-six percent of Americans think
she’d mainly come up with new policies rather than following those of
her husband, Bill Clinton; 58 percent think she’d create new policies
rather than follow Obama’s.
Comparable numbers are somewhat lower for Bush: Closer to half, 51 and
47 percent, respectively, think he’d have new policies rather than
following those of his brother, George W. Bush, or his father, George
Bush.
Both Clinton and Bush do better among registered voters who think
they’ll create new policies. But the baggage for Bush is notably heavy:
Among those who think he’d follow his brother’s policies, 70 percent
support Clinton, vs. 18 percent for Bush.
Bush, then, has his own challenging path – seeking to establish his
independence from his brother’s policies while at the same time not
antagonizing George W. Bush’s fans within the Republican Party.
Primary Groups
Bush's decline in support for his party’s nomination is broadly based,
but notable among some groups. He’s down 18 points among evangelical
white Protestants, 16 points among moderates and 12 points among
Republicans (as opposed to GOP-leaning independents). He led in these
groups in March, but with these declines he has fallen into the general
pack.
In March, Bush, Walker and Cruz had the most support from conservatives,
with Bush's support driven by those who identify themselves as somewhat
rather than very conservative. Today, conservatives split between
Walker, Rubio, Carson, Cruz and Huckabee, with Bush dropping behind.
Bush even has moved to mid-pack among “somewhat” conservatives, with
virtually no support from very conservative Republicans, a party
mainstay.
One further result on the GOP side shows that most leaned Republicans
don’t demand ideological purity: Just 19 percent say their nominee
should “take only conservative positions,” while 71 percent say some
moderate positions are OK. But even in the latter group, Bush gets just
11 percent support.
On the Democratic side, Clinton's lead in the primary has held
essentially even and remains substantial. She has taken a hit among
women - 62 percent support her now vs. 73 percent in March. She also
continues to be particularly strong among racial and ethnic minorities,
with 72 percent support vs. 56 percent among whites.
Two-Way Groups
The most striking change in the head-to-head matchup between Clinton and
Bush is a decline in Clinton’s support among women, from 59-36 percent
in March to 49-43 percent now. Men continue to split, now 44-46 percent,
Clinton-Bush.
The shift among women is generational; it’s occurred almost exclusively
among women younger than age 50 – from 72-22 percent two months ago to
48-43 percent now. It’s also happened to a lesser extent among college
educated white women, a potentially important voting group: They
supported Clinton 57-34 percent in March, but now divide evenly, 45-46
percent.
Among other groups, Clinton’s gone from a 61-point margin among
nonwhites, 78-17 percent, to a 47-point split, 70-23 percent; whites
still break for Bush. A 48-43 percent Clinton-Bush split among
independents in March is now 46-40 percent Bush-Clinton. And while more
moderates support Clinton than Bush, 51-42 percent, that gap has
declined from 24 to 9 points.
Another result underscores the influence of issues as well as candidate
attributes. Among registered voters who think the federal government
should pursue policies to reduce the income gap between wealthy and less
well-off adults, two-thirds support Clinton. Among those who oppose
government action, two-thirds back Bush. With that sort of
differentiation, we’re sure to hear more about this issue – as well as
empathy, honesty and the rest – in the campaign ahead.
Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and
cellular telephone May 28-31, 2015, in English and Spanish, among a
random national sample of 1,001 adults, including 836 registered voters.
Results have a margin of sampling error
of 3.5 points for the full sample, and 4.0 for registered voters,
including design effect. Partisan divisions are 30-22-36 percent,
Democrats-Republicans-independents.
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/poll-hillary-clinton-weakens-trustworthiness-jeb-bush-slides/story?id=31454068
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